Border closure with Afghanistan leads to drop in terrorist attacks, says CRSS report

Islamabad: Pakistan’s decision to shut its border with Afghanistan has led to a noticeable decline in terrorist attacks, with violence dropping sharply in the final months of 2025, according to an annual security report released by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS).

The report said the closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border in October resulted in a nearly 17% drop in terrorist attacks in December 2025 and a 9% decline in November. It also recorded a reduction in violence-linked fatalities among civilians and security personnel in the last quarter of the year, with civilian deaths falling by around 4% and security officials’ fatalities dropping by 19% in November and December.

Pakistan closed the Torkham and Chaman border crossings on October 12 after Afghan Taliban forces and affiliated militants carried out coordinated attacks on multiple Pakistani border posts. The clashes, which began on the night of October 11–12, led to the killing of more than 200 Taliban and allied militants, while 23 Pakistani soldiers were martyred.

Following the attacks, Pakistan conducted precision strikes targeting terrorist hideouts in Kandahar province and Kabul. A temporary 48-hour ceasefire was announced on October 15 at Afghanistan’s request, followed by a formal ceasefire agreement reached on October 19 in Qatar through talks mediated by Doha and Turkiye.

Despite the late-year decline, CRSS described 2025 as the most violent year for Pakistan in a decade. The report said overall violence rose by 34% compared to 2024, marking the fifth consecutive year of escalating violence since 2021, coinciding with the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan.

According to the report, 3,417 people were killed and 2,134 injured in 1,272 incidents of violence during 2025, including terrorist attacks and counterterrorism operations. This represented a sharp increase from 2,555 fatalities recorded in 2024.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan remained the worst-affected regions, together accounting for more than 96% of all fatalities and nearly 93% of violent incidents nationwide. KP alone recorded 2,331 deaths in 2025, up from 1,620 the previous year, a 44% year-on-year increase. Balochistan saw fatalities rise from 787 to 956, an increase of nearly 22%.

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Punjab and Sindh experienced comparatively lower levels of violence. Punjab recorded 25 incidents resulting in 40 fatalities, while Sindh reported 51 incidents causing 56 deaths. Islamabad Capital Territory saw fatalities decline from 26 to 15, while Azad Jammu and Kashmir recorded 15 deaths after reporting no violence in 2024. Gilgit-Baltistan remained the least affected region, with four fatalities.

The report also noted that 2025 was the deadliest year for outlaws in a decade. More than 2,060 militants were killed in at least 392 security operations, accounting for over 60% of total fatalities. In contrast, civilians and security officials together accounted for 1,357 deaths, or 40% of the total.

While injuries remained significantly higher among civilians and security personnel, CRSS noted that fatalities among civilians fell by more than 24% and among security officials by 5% compared to 2024, indicating the impact of intensified counterterrorism measures and border control actions.